The Dallas Cowboys put their five-game winning streak on the line Sunday at Highmark Stadium vs. a Buffalo Bills team that sits a slight 2-point NFL odds favorite and is coming off a pair of solid-showing road games vs. the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs.
The Cowboys’ offense has been blessed with some comfortable passing conditions this year, but even with decent Buffalo weather, this will be the worst spot for them of the season. With the hype a little too loud, is Week 15 the time to fade Dak and the Cowboys?
I break down the Week 15 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Cowboys vs. Bills on December 17.
Cowboys vs Bills odds
Cowboys vs Bills predictions
What the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott have done over the last five games has been impressive. They’ve outscored their opponents 201 to 85 but they’ve also played the Giants, Panthers, Commanders, Seahawks, and Eagles — a combined record of 26-39 SU.
This is also a team that is 7-0 at home indoors compared to 3-3 SU on the road with the worst passing conditions being in Week 9 in Philadelphia. The other road games were at the Meadowlands in September, Arizona, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Carolina.
Even in those solid road passing conditions, the difference in what Dak Prescott has done on the road compared to at home is significant.
Away from Dallas, his completion percentage is 11 points lower (74% to 63.5%), his QB rating is 34 points lower (122.5 to 88.7), his yards per pass are 1.6 yards shorter and his TD/INT ratio goes from 20/2 to 8/4. He has just eight passing TDs on the road this year and has faced five pass defenses that rank in the bottom half of the league in success rate.
Highmark Stadium is set to have double-digit winds and a small chance of rain — nothing crazy for NFL weather standards in Buffalo, but likely the worst passing conditions that this offense has seen all season.
This Dallas offense has inflated its numbers on the backs of some awful teams and great settings but it has gone over 23 points on the road just once in its last five travel games with Carolina being the exception.
Defensive metrics can be noisy, but the Buffalo Bills offense will look to run the ball more with heavy personnel now that Dawson Knox is back and slow things down. Following the bye, Joe Brady’s offense went from 3-WR sets 76% of the time to 47% of the time last week and it runs at one of the slower paces in football in general and in neutral context.
The noise can’t be higher for this offense and I’m shorting them this week in Buffalo.
My best bet: Cowboys team total Under 24.5 (-114 at FanDuel) Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Cowboys vs Bills same-game parlay
Cowboys team total Under 24.5 pointsKhalil Shakir Under 27.5 receiving yardsJosh Allen Under 257.5 passing yards25% boost available
+329 +411 at FanDuel
This is a correlated play that has the Bills playing with the lead while leaning more on the run. Hopefully, that kills the clock with their slow offensive pace. The Bills went away from 3-WR sets last week but some books haven’t adjusted to that. Khalil Shakir Under 27.5 yards is a great play solo as he had just one target last week. THE BLITZ has Josh Allen’s Under 257.7 passing yards as one of the best +EV props in this game with a projection of 233.16.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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